How should we evaluate modelling work for outbreak response?
Sebastian Funk & Katharine Sherratt
https://epiforecasts.io
“All models are wrong, but some are useful”
George Box
To answer these questions, we need to evaluate modelling work.
Some examples
Forecasts vs. Scenarios
Image from: https://covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/
Assess quality of models by how closely prediction matches reality
Assessing predictions requires matching scenarios to reality.
Assess utility by asking recipients of modelling advice?
Scoping review on evaluation of modelling work with Johanna Hanefeld, Emil Iftekhar, Julia Fitzner, Duaa Rao, Aleena Tanveer.